Disappointing Housing Data ... Again

So the number of new housing is kind of bad: 654 000 new units started in March, 5.8 percent below the revised February figure. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting something higher. The median forecast of 82 who ventured prediction 705,000. Even a lowball estimate, 670,000, is too high. It's a rare economic survey where the greatest bear is not too showy. Obviously we will not be fooled again housing: Just when it looked like he got out of bed, the pain lasting recovery rolling with some phlegmy numbers.But how we have failed? Housing starts last month were 10 per cent higher than the previous year. And building permits were strong, up 4.5 percent from February and 30 percent higher than they were a year earlier. Permit amounts of data are probably more reliable too, compared to the number of starts that tends to get choppy significantly altered. Of course, it's easier to apply to a building permit to start building thing.So away from new housing data both seem to be goosed by unseasonably warm temperatures the past few months which everyone knows. "I think time will give us a big lift," said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank (DB), which estimated that 725,000 homes started in March.Betting the time can be confusing, though . Once you start depending on it, it becomes reliable. "What do you think is the effect of time on the previous numbers suddenly do not exist in the data of March," said LaVorgna. It turns out that instead of creating new economic activity, the time may well just pull proceed, steal from spring and winter to give. That seem to be part of the story behind the low employment in the U.S. last month number.Julia Coronado, chief North American economist for BNP Paribas (BNP), thought the number of housing starts will go one of two way: "It's either going to be good in" good upside or downside. Coronado reverse selection, forecasting 720,000 new beginning. "This is the warmest March on record. We think that probably means an early breakthrough in activity, "he said. At the same time, after falling as warm and warm winter record when many countries have never freezes, construction work has never got shelved. "So we certainly will not see a spike at the beginning of spring we usually see in March." Among them are colored not surprised Barry Ritholtz, the "dismantling Housing Recovery" series just finished, fairly intensive . Bearishness continue Ritholtz housing can be summarized as follows: for there are still unsold homes on the market too much, they are still too expensive for first time buyers, still more foreclosures down the pike , and renting is a good option for people too much, compared with owning.Which brings us to the final piece of the puzzle: multi-family housing. Many new homes built over the past few months has persuaded a multi-family units: apartment buildings, condominiums, duplexes, all underbuilt during the housing boom. Some people believe that the U.S. is still not nearly enough to build rental units, especially given the high cost. That makes it one of the more disturbing lines in March began to report more disturbing: Buildings with five or more units fell by 20 percent. Reading too much to improper exercise, especially when the percent change for the whole set of data is a margin of error of plus or minus 15.6 percent points.Still, not everyone reads the numbers as bad.Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM), he allowed the robust data to refute the arguments warm weather, and construction will grow throughout the year. Of Shenfeld, an estimated 675,000 housing starts, housing truly believe will contribute to GDP this year, and who can do it, despite rejection in a row because December.Still construction spending, even warm housing bulls their enthusiasm. "It's not a big recovery in construction we wait. It just crawled out from under a low level of homebuilding, "said Shenfeld. "However, mini-bounce has begun."